Election latest: Tories at risk of wipeout in multiple regions - and more than half of cabinet projected to lose seats (2024)

Labour is on course for a historic majority of 200, according to a new YouGov projection for Sky News.

Sir Keir Starmer's party is tipped to win a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 won in 2019 and the party's best-ever result.

The Tories would slump to the lowest number of parliamentary seats since the party's formation with 108 - down from the 365 won in 2019 and even lower than a previous low of 141 in 1906.

It would give Sir Keir's party the second-largest majority since the Second World War when voters go to the polls on 4 July.

This poll gives Labour an even bigger win than previous MRP surveys, which are considered the gold standard for projecting results due to the large sample size of respondents and the additional information they take into account - such as geographic location.

Compared to YouGov's last poll of this type, from 3 June, the Tories have lost another 32 seats and Labour have gained three.

Some 15 of 27 Tory cabinet members still standing in this general election are projected to lose - including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt.

How do the other parties fare?

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six-times the number of seats they won in 2019.

John Swinney's SNP is tipped to drop to 20 seats, down from the 48 Nicola Sturgeon won in the last general election.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on course for five seats, including the party leader winning Clacton, while the Greens have two and Plaid Cymru have four.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

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Tonight features the first of Sophy's leader interviews for the 2024 general election campaign: Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats.

The pair discuss the party's plans for immigration, its stance on potentially rejoining the EU's single market, and why Sir Ed has been so open about caring for his son.

And of course, his campaign stunts come up too.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

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George Galloway spent much of his manifesto speech talking about Nigel Farage.

The leader of the Workers Party of Britain warned of a political vacuum that was being created by the perceived failure of the major parties.

He said Reform UK was making dangerous advances as a result.

"There's a real chance Nigel Farage will run away with this election," he said.

While Reform UK and the Workers Party sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum, both seek to fill that aforementioned vacuum.

But Mr Galloway's party is not building the same kind of momentum and current polling suggests it won't return a single MP.

That would be a step back from February, when Mr Galloway won the Rochdale by-election, dropping candidate Azhar Ali at late notice after he was accused of antisemitism.

At the same time, Mr Galloway successfully capitalised on the frustration and anger at Labour's position on the Israel-Gaza conflict among Rochdale's Muslim population.

Muslims make up 20% of the population in Rochdale and there are 28 seats nationwide where they comprise more than a fifth.

Labour are directing activists to places like Luton to shore up support in the face of a threat from independent candidates and parties taking a strong pro-Palestine stance.

Mr Galloway warned today that Labour had lost the Muslim vote over their foreign policy stance.

Yet most Muslims rate the cost of living crisis and the NHS as their main priorities, ahead of the Middle East.

Labour might be concerned about losing some Muslim voters, but the majority are still planning to vote for them - and in higher numbers than the rest of the population.

Mr Galloway's opponents in Rochdale on 4 July are:

• Andy Kelly, Lib Dems;
• Martyn Savin, Greens;
• Michael Howard, Reform;
• Paul Waugh, Labour;
• Paul Ellison, Conservatives.

The Workers Party of Britain has launched its manifesto today.

The party is led by George Galloway, who won a by-election in Rochdale earlier this year and is looking to retain the seat.

Mr Galloway's opponents in Rochdale on 4 July are:

• Andy Kelly, Lib Dems;
• Martyn Savin, Greens;
• Michael Howard, Reform;
• Paul Waugh, Labour;
• Paul Ellison, Conservatives.

Here is what his party wants to do:

• Raise the personal tax threshold to £21,200;
• Introduce a one off 5% wealth tax on all estates "valued fairly" at over £10m - estimated to bring in a £17bn windfall;
• Call for a single state in which all those born in Palestine and Israel can "live in peace with equal rights";
• Review defence and foreign policy, including a referendum on the UK's NATO membership in which the party would back leave;
• Introduce a migration policy that "reflects anxiety among the working class" but also acknowledges "some of this anxiety is stoked by the racist right";
  
• Consider the nationalisation of rail, electricity, water, the military-industrial complex, national food logistics, ports, and airports;
  
• Hold a net-zero referendum to create a national debate "on who profits from these targets and on what terms", and oppose ULEZ initiatives;
  
• Propose major review of pensions policy - aiming to restore option of all workers retiring at 60;
  
• Free public travel for children - as in London - for the rest of the country;
• Free "good quality and nutritious" breakfast and lunch meals during term time to all children without means testing;
• Get police to "refocus on street safety and estate crime as an antidote to policing by Twitter and criminalising speech and thought".

The wives of three Conservative ministers - including the PM - have been out on the campaign trail.

Susie Cleverly, wife of Home Secretary James Cleverly; Lucia Hunt, wife of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt; and Akshata Murty, wife of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak; joined Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer in Ely and East Cambridgeshire constituency today.

The group were seen handing out leaflets in Fordham, Suffolk.

The full list of candidates for Ely and East Cambridgeshire is:

• Robert Bayley, Social Democratic Party;
• Charlotte Cane, Liberal Democrats;
• Andy Cogan, Green Party;
• Ryan Coogan, Reform UK;
• Lucy Frazer, Conservative Party;
• Hoo-Ray Henry, Monster Raving Loony Party;
• Elizabeth McWilliams, Labour Party;
• Obi Monye, independent;
• Rob Rawlins, independent.

By Ashish Joshi, health correspondent

In the SNP manifesto it says funding for Scotland's NHS "has more than doubled" and "staffing is at a record high" - with "far more doctors and nurses per head" than in the rest of the UK.

This is true.

What is also true is that since the pandemic, the Scottish NHS workforce has grown substantially, but its hospital productivity has fallen.

Higher spending and recruitment has not been matched by an increase in the number of patients being seen and cared for.

Scotland's elective waiting list has grown (more than England's), as have the country's longer term waits for operations and A&E waiting times (though these are higher in England).

The SNP says it will invest £300m to drive down these waiting times, money it says it will raise through "devolution of tax powers".

The Scottish government spends more on health than any other area.

And with an ageing population with complex health needs, it will need to spend more in the years ahead.

According to research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, at the start of devolution Scotland was spending more per person on health than England or Wales, but this gap has narrowed.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission projects spending will need to grow by around 3% in real terms over the next two decades and that much of this spending will go towards increased staffing.

In the past hour or so, Just Stop Oil released a video of its members spraying Stonehenge with orange paint.

They did this to warn of the climate crisis ahead of this week's summer solstice.

Sunak: A disgraceful act of vandalism

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was asked about the incident this afternoon.

He said: "This is a disgraceful act of vandalism to one of the UK's and the world's oldest and most important monuments.

"Just Stop Oil should be ashamed of their activists, and they and anyone associated with them, including a certain Labour Party donor, should issue a condemnation of this shameful act immediately."

Dale Vince, a Labour donor who previously donated to Just Stop Oil, said last year he had stopped giving money to the group.

Starmer: Just Stop Oil are pathetic

Sir Keir Starmer has also condemned the incident today.

"The damage done to Stonehenge is outrageous," he tweeted.

"Just Stop Oil are pathetic.

"Those responsible must face the full force of the law."

Three people are on trial at Westminster Magistrates' Court following a protest outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.

The demonstration happened back in April.

Giving evidence today, Sir Keir's wife Victoria said seeing the protest - which involved a banner saying "Starmer stop the killing" in reference to the war in Gaza - made her feel "a bit sick".

"I felt apprehensive and uncomfortable," she added.

Mrs Starmer said she was returning from a shopping trip with her son at the time, and chose to keep driving.

Asked by the defence's lawyer if the protest looked peaceful, she said: "It would look like a peaceful protest if it hadn't been outside my home."

Leonorah Ward, 21, of Leeds, Zosia Lewis, 23, of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, and Daniel Formentin, 24, of Leeds, deny public order offences and breaching bail.

The trial continues.

The SNP has released its election manifesto - and we've scoured their policy pledges so you don't have to.

Scroll to the right in the interactive tool below to find out what the party has promised to do if they win the election.

We will produce a breakdown of all the other parties' manifestos here when they are announced - you can find the ones we've done so far in the key points above.

If you're just getting stuck into your lunch or polishing it off, why not accompany your feast with the latest Politics Hub bulletin.

It's another day of manifesto launches, while the prime minister and the Labour leader have been reacting to news inflation has fallen.

Here are the main things you need to know:

• The SNP has launched its manifesto with a promise to continue its quest for another independence referendum, which the party claims could pave the way for Scotland to rejoin the EU;
• Party leader John Swinney took aim at Labour for not promising enough change from the Tories, citing their unwillingness to scrap the two-child benefit cap and talk about the economic damage done by Brexit;
• But questioned by our political correspondent Tamara Cohen, he admitted his party had been through a "tough time" in recent years and some of its supporters may be considering voting Labour.

• Inflation falling back to the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in three years has been welcomed by the prime minister;
• Rishi Sunak said it was a "very positive step" that shows his plan is working, and repeated his claim that Labour would undo the country's economic recovery with tax hikes;
• But he sought to downplay news that small boat crossings reached a 2024 high yesterday, insisting his Rwanda scheme would help.

• Sir Keir Starmer said people's lives wouldn't "suddenly get easier" after inflation fell and described the spike in Channel crossings as "shocking";
• His reaction to both came as he welcomed the support of former Tory donor John Caudwell, who backed Boris Johnson in 2019;
• The Labour leader will be hoping for more good news when Sky News publishes the results of a major YouGov poll at 5pm.

• Once that poll has been and gone, consider setting a 7pm alarm for tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge;
• We'll have an in-depth interview with Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey, who'll be discussing topics from migration and Brexit to social care and his experience looking after his son.

Until then, stick with us here in the Politics Hub for more news and analysis from the campaign trail.